Everything else is noise. Answer these and the number falls out. Each slider shows where things stand today so you can see how far your answer is from the present.
The whole asset class, all coins combined. It is today. Growth has been slowing every cycle: 40%/yr peak-to-peak from 2018 to 2021, but only 8.6%/yr from 2021 to 2025. Gold, for scale, is around $30tn.
today. It bottomed near 38% in late 2022 and has climbed since, peaking around 66% in late 2025. The two prior cycles each gave back 20+ points from the peak. Stablecoins dilute this automatically as they grow.
today, measured against everything that is not Bitcoin. This is the competitive question: XRP against Ethereum, Solana, stablecoins and the rest. It is a separate call from whether Bitcoin's share falls, and it is usually the one people skip.
today. Ripple unlocks 1bn a month but re-locks 600 to 800m within days, so net is 200 to 300m. Observed growth has run 2.9bn a year.
Ripple's ODL moved about $15bn in 2024, roughly a day now. Push this as high as you like. It will not change the price, and seeing that is the point.
Set below 100% to get a probability-weighted value instead of a conditional one. The 2018 paper used 25% for its success case and treated the failure case as zero.
Why payments are not a question here. Ripple's ODL has never explained a measurable share of XRP's market value. At today's volumes the inventory it requires is under a million dollars against a $64bn market cap. Even growing 150% a year for four years it stays a rounding error. Eight years of price history back this up: XRP has moved on court rulings, ETF launches and legislation, not on corridor volume. The payment rail may well succeed. It has not been what prices the token, and it will not be by 2030.
On the numbers moving. Class size and Bitcoin dominance vary by data provider, because each one tracks a different set of assets. A provider covering a longer tail reports a larger total and therefore a smaller Bitcoin share. The source is named beside the timestamp above. Compare like with like if you are checking these against a chart elsewhere.
What is actually measured here. Price, market cap and supply, the $2.13tn class size and 59.4% Bitcoin dominance, and reported ODL volume. Everything else is your assumption or mine. Treat the shape of the answer as the finding, not the decimal places.
This is a model, not a forecast. Every output is a restatement of what you typed in.